Churchill juveniles, part 2

 A couple more 2-year-olds from my review of the Churchill Downs meet - one you won't hear from this spring and one you might.

  Coming up next week, a pacefig analysis of Lookin at Lucky.

THISKYHASNOLIMIT

Owner- Cathy & Bob Zollars, Mark Wagner

Trainer- Steve Asmussen

Sky Mesa-Lovely Regina (A.P. Indy)

Record 6-3-0-1

                                                                                  Pacefig line

Nov 28 CD---Ky Jockey Club---------1 1/16-- 6th by 11----- 62-77-85 final 82

Nov 1 CD---Iroquois Stakes-----------1M-------1st by 1--------67-81-85 final 87

Sept 19 Bel---Futurity Stakes---------7F--------3rd by 12--- --77-87-87 final 80

Aug 20 Sar---Saratoga Special-------6 1/2F---8th by 25--- --92-92      final 67

July 4 CD---Maiden----------------------6F-------1st by 7----------85-82      final 83

June 11 CD--Maiden--------------------5F-------2nd by 2 3/4----88-87      final 83

    Thiskyhasnolimit’s took the Iroquois at Churchill Downs, where the winning strategy appeared to be a change in running style.  But unfortunately, his dull Kentucky Jockey Club performance came with an excuse.

     "He came out of that race with a bone chip," trainer Steve Asmussen said. "So he'll be on the sidelines for a while."

     Thus, Thiskyhasnolimit won't be a Kentucky Derby contender, but he’ll be an interesting colt to watch when he eventually returns to the races. Prior to the Iroquois, he was asked to stay within close range of speedy D’Funnybone, which didn’t yield desired results, especially when he broke slowly in the Saratoga Special and was rushed into a fast pace.  But when he was allowed to settle in the Iroquois, he advanced with a four-wide turn move before proving strongest in the lane at 13-1 odds for an 85 Beyer Speed Figure. The Iroquois form was flattered when runnerup Uh Oh Bango was subsequently second in the Delta Jackpot with a 93 Beyer. In the Kentucky Jockey Club, he carried his head in the early running as if he was a bit uncomfortable, which proved out in the postrace diagnosis. 

    Thiskyhasnolimit’s dam, Lovely Regina, is a half-sister to Bernardini, the Preakness, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner.

    Pacefigs aren’t of much use in handicapping him, other than to illustrate how much differently he was ridden in his last two starts.

DRYFLY

Owner- Charles Cella

Trainer- Lynn Whiting

Jump Start-Creeksider (Topsider)

                                                                                      Pacefig line

Nov 1 CD---Allowance----------------7F--------1st by 1 1/2---------90-90-91 final 89

Oct 5  Del---Allowance---------------6F---------7th by 8 3/4--------90-88     final 78

Sept 1 Pha---Maiden-----------------5F---------1st by 6 1/2---------82-82      final 81

   Trainer Lynn Whiting found numerous diamonds in the rough for the late Cal Partee, such as 1992 Kentucky Derby winner Lil E. Tee, and he bought this gelding privately in Ocala on behalf of another prominent Arkansas name - Oaklawn Park owner Charles Cella. That Hot Springs connection plus Whiting’s trademark patience helps explain why Dryfly was not asked to tackle more seasoned distance horses in the Kentucky Jockey Club and is instead being prepared for a potential stakes debut in Oaklawn’s Jan. 18 Smarty Jones Stakes.

    “Hopefully we’ll get him there all right,” Whiting said. “He stayed at Churchill Downs through December. The plan was to give him a break so that hopefully we’d kind of freshen him up bit and get a little weight on him to make a run at this Oaklawn series.

    “He’s done everything right for me. He hasn’t missed too much that I would have otherwise wanted to see happen. He’s trained well and the weather was kind to us (in Kentucky).  The weather pattern (in Arkansas) doesn’t look real good, though. We’re getting a little weather coming in, so we may have to deal with some freezes, but the horse has done everything to satisfy me at this point.”

      Dryfly toyed with a maiden field in his debut at Philadelphia Park in September, then the next month showed nothing at Delaware Park after being bounced around leaving the gate.  Part of that trouble seemed to be of his own making: he’s been a step slow from the gate in his last two starts.

     “He just wasn’t himself at all that day,” Whiting said. “I don’t know what was going on with him. But he came back and trained good, and at Churchill I fully expected he would rectify his previous race.”

     And Dryfly did just that in his Nov. 1 Churchill Downs first-level allowance under Calvin Borel.  He rushed up after his somewhat sluggish break, then relaxed nicely on a clear lead. Great Attack moved alongside to put a head in front of Dryfly nearing the quarter pole, but Dryfly battled back on the rail to edge clear in the last furlong. The pacefig line was solid; Churchill’s average allowance for 2-year-olds at the 7 furlong distance goes in 83-86-87 final 87, so Dryfly was solidly faster than par across the board. Also, Great Attack returned four weeks later to win a Churchill maiden by three lengths in a 90 Beyer.

     Dryfly was gelded last year because of an undescended testicle. Injuries aborted the racing career of his sire Jump Start after age 2, but he is a son of A.P. Indy from a solid Overbrook family. Dam Creeksider retired a maiden after seven undistinguished starts.

     “He’s a quick horse, but he relaxes well,” Whiting said of Dryfly. “He’s a horse who in his training in the mornings, he’ll go off with a little authority and then prick his ears and glide along, and when you punch the button he’s there.

    “I think he’ll run on.  Whether he’s a mile-and-a-quarter horse or not remains to be seen. But I think he’s got every chance to get a mile-and-a-sixteenth or a mile-and-an-eighth.”

Churchill juveniles, part 2

 A couple more 2-year-olds from my review of the Churchill Downs meet - one you won't hear from this spring and one you might.

  Coming up next week, a pacefig analysis of Lookin at Lucky.

THISKYHASNOLIMIT

Owner- Cathy & Bob Zollars, Mark Wagner

Trainer- Steve Asmussen

Sky Mesa-Lovely Regina (A.P. Indy)

Record 6-3-0-1

                                                                                  Pacefig line

Nov 28 CD---Ky Jockey Club---------1 1/16-- 6th by 11----- 62-77-85 final 82

Nov 1 CD---Iroquois Stakes-----------1M-------1st by 1--------67-81-85 final 87

Sept 19 Bel---Futurity Stakes---------7F--------3rd by 12--- --77-87-87 final 80

Aug 20 Sar---Saratoga Special-------6 1/2F---8th by 25--- --92-92      final 67

July 4 CD---Maiden----------------------6F-------1st by 7----------85-82      final 83

June 11 CD--Maiden--------------------5F-------2nd by 2 3/4----88-87      final 83

    Thiskyhasnolimit’s took the Iroquois at Churchill Downs, where the winning strategy appeared to be a change in running style.  But unfortunately, his dull Kentucky Jockey Club performance came with an excuse.

     "He came out of that race with a bone chip," trainer Steve Asmussen said. "So he'll be on the sidelines for a while."

     Thus, Thiskyhasnolimit won't be a Kentucky Derby contender, but he’ll be an interesting colt to watch when he eventually returns to the races. Prior to the Iroquois, he was asked to stay within close range of speedy D’Funnybone, which didn’t yield desired results, especially when he broke slowly in the Saratoga Special and was rushed into a fast pace.  But when he was allowed to settle in the Iroquois, he advanced with a four-wide turn move before proving strongest in the lane at 13-1 odds for an 85 Beyer Speed Figure. The Iroquois form was flattered when runnerup Uh Oh Bango was subsequently second in the Delta Jackpot with a 93 Beyer. In the Kentucky Jockey Club, he carried his head in the early running as if he was a bit uncomfortable, which proved out in the postrace diagnosis. 

    Thiskyhasnolimit’s dam, Lovely Regina, is a half-sister to Bernardini, the Preakness, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner.

    Pacefigs aren’t of much use in handicapping him, other than to illustrate how much differently he was ridden in his last two starts.

DRYFLY

Owner- Charles Cella

Trainer- Lynn Whiting

Jump Start-Creeksider (Topsider)

                                                                                      Pacefig line

Nov 1 CD---Allowance----------------7F--------1st by 1 1/2---------90-90-91 final 89

Oct 5  Del---Allowance---------------6F---------7th by 8 3/4--------90-88     final 78

Sept 1 Pha---Maiden-----------------5F---------1st by 6 1/2---------82-82      final 81

   Trainer Lynn Whiting found numerous diamonds in the rough for the late Cal Partee, such as 1992 Kentucky Derby winner Lil E. Tee, and he bought this gelding privately in Ocala on behalf of another prominent Arkansas name - Oaklawn Park owner Charles Cella. That Hot Springs connection plus Whiting’s trademark patience helps explain why Dryfly was not asked to tackle more seasoned distance horses in the Kentucky Jockey Club and is instead being prepared for a potential stakes debut in Oaklawn’s Jan. 18 Smarty Jones Stakes.

    “Hopefully we’ll get him there all right,” Whiting said. “He stayed at Churchill Downs through December. The plan was to give him a break so that hopefully we’d kind of freshen him up bit and get a little weight on him to make a run at this Oaklawn series.

    “He’s done everything right for me. He hasn’t missed too much that I would have otherwise wanted to see happen. He’s trained well and the weather was kind to us (in Kentucky).  The weather pattern (in Arkansas) doesn’t look real good, though. We’re getting a little weather coming in, so we may have to deal with some freezes, but the horse has done everything to satisfy me at this point.”

      Dryfly toyed with a maiden field in his debut at Philadelphia Park in September, then the next month showed nothing at Delaware Park after being bounced around leaving the gate.  Part of that trouble seemed to be of his own making: he’s been a step slow from the gate in his last two starts.

     “He just wasn’t himself at all that day,” Whiting said. “I don’t know what was going on with him. But he came back and trained good, and at Churchill I fully expected he would rectify his previous race.”

     And Dryfly did just that in his Nov. 1 Churchill Downs first-level allowance under Calvin Borel.  He rushed up after his somewhat sluggish break, then relaxed nicely on a clear lead. Great Attack moved alongside to put a head in front of Dryfly nearing the quarter pole, but Dryfly battled back on the rail to edge clear in the last furlong. The pacefig line was solid; Churchill’s average allowance for 2-year-olds at the 7 furlong distance goes in 83-86-87 final 87, so Dryfly was solidly faster than par across the board. Also, Great Attack returned four weeks later to win a Churchill maiden by three lengths in a 90 Beyer.

     Dryfly was gelded last year because of an undescended testicle. Injuries aborted the racing career of his sire Jump Start after age 2, but he is a son of A.P. Indy from a solid Overbrook family. Dam Creeksider retired a maiden after seven undistinguished starts.

     “He’s a quick horse, but he relaxes well,” Whiting said of Dryfly. “He’s a horse who in his training in the mornings, he’ll go off with a little authority and then prick his ears and glide along, and when you punch the button he’s there.

    “I think he’ll run on.  Whether he’s a mile-and-a-quarter horse or not remains to be seen. But I think he’s got every chance to get a mile-and-a-sixteenth or a mile-and-an-eighth.”

Churchill's best 2-year-olds

My blogging can be as frequent as my “tweets” or posts on my Facebook page. Which is to say, the schedule of my blog posts can be somewhat erratic – or in the case of tweets or Facebook, nonexistent.

Having said that, while getting into the Christmas blogging spirit I recently reviewed some of the best performances at the Churchill Downs meeting by male 2-year-olds on dirt, horses who could possibly surface in Triple Crown preps.

We’ll start with the obvious one:

SUPER SAVER

Owner- WinStar Farm

Trainer- Todd Pletcher

Maria’s Mon-Supercharger by A.P. Indy

Record: 4-2-1-0

Nov 28 CD--- Kentucky Jockey Club---1 1/16--- 1st by 5----pacefigs 85-89-89 final 90

Oct 10 Bel--- Champagne-----------------1 mile---4th by 2----pacefigs 82-83-89 final 87

Sept 11 Bel—Maiden----------------------1 mile----1st by 7----pacefigs 86-89-87 final 87

Super Saver looked good winning the Kentucky Jockey Club with his usual frontrunning style, getting a Beyer Speed Figure of 93. Under little encouragement from Calvin Borel, his natural speed took him to a daylight lead he maintained for six furlongs while going easily. Borel appeared to give him a bit of a second-turn breather, and he willingly allowed Activity Report and Worldly to pull alongside at the 5/16ths. Super Saver was then shaken up straightening for home, and quickly opened up under typically strong encouragement from Borel.

The field Super Saver whipped was decent, considering runnerup William’s Kitten had just returned from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where he lost by 4 ¾ lengths while finishing eighth.

This can’t be done routinely simply because of the time involved, but I compared Super Saver’s line with the average pacefig line of the last 10 runnings of the Kentucky Jockey Club. His line you can see above – 85-89-89-90. The 10-year average is 83-89-90-90. Pretty normal, except that decade included winners Dollar Bill, Repent, Soto, The Cliff’s Edge, Greater Good, Anak Nakal and Beethoven, stretch runners an average of more than five lengths back at the first two calls. Only two other winners of the race during that span – Private Vow (2005) and Tiz Wonderful (2006) – were on or near the pace, and Super Saver ran nearly two lengths faster than both at the first call. Private Vow’s paceline was 79-83-90-91 and Tiz Wonderful’s was 79-86-90-93.

Thus Super Saver would appear to be as relevant as those other Kentucky Jockey Club winners, perhaps even slightly more so, although – and this is a big “although” – we don’t know yet whether he’s a one-dimensional frontrunner.

Pedigree-wise, Super Saver is super solid. Maria’s Mon has already sired a Kentucky Derby winner in Monarchos. Supercharger once was a part of the Phipps breeding empire, and was purchased at auction carrying Super Saver in utero. Super Saver is Supercharger’s third foal and first stakes winner, but Supercharger is a full-sister to three graded winners: Godolphin’s brilliant Jerome winner Girolamo; Daydreaming, who competed in six Grade 1 stakes races and placed in two of them; and Accelerator, second in Captain Bodgit’s Wood Memorial and third in Wild Rush’s Metropolitan. Beneath those horses on the pedigree page are the expected assortment of Phipps stakes stars.

Four or five more Churchill Downs 2-year-old are to come. Presumably before the Derby. Just kidding.

Slower figures for Zenyatta?

    I’m not weighing in on the Horse of the Year debate - yet. But allow me to offer this opinion: those who use Beyer Speed Figures as the primary gauge of Zenyatta’s talents are barking up the wrong tree.

    The effect of pace on Zenyatta’s figures, which is intertwined with the synthetic surfaces she primarily ran over, makes them useless in comparing her talent level to Rachel Alexandra's.

     Anyone who has computed speed or pace figs can testify that races with a fast pace are more likely to earn a higher final number. A one-mile race with a six-furlong fraction of 1:10 can fall apart in the final quarter-mile and end up with a final time of 1:37. But the same horses traveling in 1:15 would need a world-class finish to stop the clock at 1:38. In a nutshell, that describes the figure differences between Rachel and Zenyatta.

     Many of Zenyatta’s races were so hopelessly slow-paced, she couldn’t possibly have matched Rachel Alexandra’s dirt figures. And those paces were actually slower than many realize; synthetic tracks are typically faster than dirt tracks, thus a half-mile fraction of :49 at Santa Anita is more like :50 at Churchill Downs. Because synthetic surfaces are more kind to come-from-behinders, Mike Smith permitted Zenyatta to lag far behind those crawling paces. And Smith’s confidence in her superiority led him to usually take her six- to seven-wide, avoiding traffic but slowing her figures more. It is a testament to Zenyatta’s ability she ran the numbers she did.

     Could pace possibly make that much difference in final numbers? Absolutely.

     Zenyatta's half-mile pace figure in the 1 1/16-mile Lady's Secret was approximately 27 lengths slower than Rachel Alexandra's half-mile figure from the 1 1/8-mile Woodward. Think that might have impacted Zenyatta's final fig?

     Also, look at Life is Sweet, who employed a similar but somewhat less-dramatic running style as her stablemate Zenyatta, always finishing behind her, as did everyone else. When Careless Jewel was a runaway on the front end in Friday’s Breeders‘ Cup Ladies Classic, a synthetic stakes suddenly had a dirt-style pace scenario, and Life is Sweet’s Beyer Speed Figure leaped to a career-high 107.

     In the Classic, Zenyatta saw a more moderate pace than that, but it was Dr. Fager-like compared to what she was accustomed to. Her final figure was a 112, much more in line with what we might expect from, say, Rachel Alexandra.

     This doesn’t mean Zenyatta is better than Rachel Alexandra, or more deserving of Horse of the Year, just that speed handicappers should adjust their thinking this time around.

     In handicapping, speed figures are indeed the way, the truth and the light. But sometimes you need to know when to pull another club out of the bag.

Breeders' Cup by the pace figures

A look at the Breeders’ Cup main-track races from a pace figure perspective. All figs below are on the Moss Pace Figure scale.  Included are pacefigs for this year’s running, par pacefigs associated with that final figure, plus the pacefig lines from last year’s running and the local prep race at Santa Anita, at the same distance when applicable.

The Juvenile Fillies came up a tad faster than par from start to finish, but slower-paced at the first call than the Oak Leaf Stakes (one reason Always a Princess was well-supported) and not as strongly run as last year.
  Juv Fillies ’09 (She B Wild):         58-72-83/88
  Par:                                              55-67-79/88
  Juv Fillies ’08 (Stardom Bound):  69-77-87/90
  Oak Leaf ’09 (Blind Luck):           70-69-79/88

Meanwhile, the Juvenile (Vale of York) had a slow-early, fast-late shape compared to par, compared to last year’s running and especially compared to the Norfolk Stakes. This makes runnerup Lookin At Lucky look even better in hindsight.
   Juvenile ’09 (Vale of York):       52-62-77/89  
   Par:                                           57-67-80/89
   Juvenile ’08 (Midshipman):       55-66-80/89  
   Norfolk ’09 (Lookin at Lucky):    67-70-82/89

Last year, the Filly & Mare Sprint had a swift pace that aided Ventura’s late kick.  Without Indian Blessing to push the pace this year, you could see the handwriting on the wall.  There wasn’t actually a seven-furlong prep at Oak Tree, so I went back to the Santa Monica Jan. 31 for another comparison.
   Filly & Mare Sprint ’09 (Informed Decision):  70-81-92/94 
   Par:                                                                76-84-93/94
   Filly & Mare Sprint ’08 (Ventura):                   79-89-94/95
   Santa Monica ’09 (Ventura):                          68-79-90/92

The 2008 Sprint, won by Midnight Lute, was also faster-paced - at least at the quarter-mile call - than this year’s running, which stayed close to par.
   Sprint ’09 (Dancing in Silks): 84-91/95
   Par:                                        84-89/95
   Sprint ’08 (Midnight Lute):     91-91-97
   Ancient Title ’09 (Gayego):    87-88/93


The Dirt Mile was slow-early, fast-late.  Albertus Maximus last year won a race that was fast-early, slow-late.
    Dirt Mile ’09 (Furthest Land):     56-72-86/95
    Par:                                             63-74-86/95
    Dirt Mile ’08 (Albertus Maximus): 75-82-90/93

Need any further evidence that Careless Jewel was a runaway train Saturday?  No wonder Life Is Sweet looked so strong with her 107 Beyer.  That race, plus Zenyatta’s victory in the Classic with a 112 Beyer, demonstrates just how much the crawling pace in recent filly-and-mare preps in Southern California was affecting the final figures.
   Ladies Classic ’09 (Life Is Sweet):             66-88-95-94/95
   Par:                                                            58-68-82-93/95
   Ladies Classic ’08 (Zenyatta):                    55-62-80-90/94
   Lady’s Secret ’09 (Zenyatta at 1 1/16m):   39-56-77-xx/92

 And Zenyatta’s mad dash through the stretch in the Classic came after a pace that was not substantially quicker than the 2008 running.
   Classic ’09 (Zenyatta):             52-63-77-89/97
   Par:                                          56-66-81-91/97
   Classic ’08 (Raven’s Pass):     53-61-73-87/96
   Santa Anita Hcp ’09 (Einstein): 46-61-72-86/94

Juvenile Fillies a pacefig mess

  Should synthetic surfaces in America ultimately go the way of the Edsel, part of the blame will go to the chaos they've made of handicapping.

   Don't get me wrong.  I'm not a synthetic basher.  The jury is still out on synthetics, as far as I'm concerned.  But trying to make sense of the pacefigs in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies is like trying to understand the nuances of the health-care legislation.  At some point, you just throw up your hands and pop open another beer.

   In the Oak Leaf Stakes, Always a Princess was compromised by an inside post position that limited the options of Garrett Gomez, who needed to let her run from the gate to avoid getting trapped along the rail in an 11-horse field.  She set the pace on a Pro-Ride surface that has not been kind to speed, and still held for second behind Blind Luck in a second-lifetime-start performance that has understandably been lauded. Her pace figure line of 70-69-79/86 looks especially good when you notice that her quarter-mile fig was a full 15 points faster than par.

   But six days later at Belmont Park, Devil May Care held on to win the Frizette after stalking the pace in one-turn mile pacefigs of 76-79-85/89.  She was a full 2 1/2 lengths from the lead at the first call, yet that call was only 6 points faster than par.

   Does that mean Devil May Care ran a better race?  Not necessarily.  Always a Princess ran substantially slower fractions, but they may have compromised her chances, anyway, since synthetics are so much less kind to speed than dirt. 

    Do those the pacefigs mean Devil May Care should be in front of Always a Princess during the early running of the Juvenile Fillies.  Not necessarily. Johnny Velazquez will almost certainly ride Devil May Care less aggressively from the gate on Pro-Ride, and if Always a Princess gets a more advantageous post position, she absolutely will be ridden differently.

   See?

   And it gets worse.  The pace of the Alcibiades was especially slow.  She Be Wild raced in close proximity to the leaders in 51-60-76/88.  That's about 12 lengths slower at the quarter than Always a Princess ran, and about 16 lengths slower than Devil May Care ran. What does that mean to the Juvenile Fillies, exactly?  My guess is that the Alcibiades was not as strong a prep as the Oak Leaf, regardless of the similarity in final Beyer numbers.  But it's just a guess.  And I'm not even sure it's an educated guess.

   The Mazarine Stakes at Woodbine?  For the first quarter mile of that prep, runaway winner Biofuel went so slowly she would have gotten a negative-65 on the Beyer scale. From a pacefig standpoint, her closing surge in that race was stronger than any other Juvenile Fillies entrant has ever recorded, despite a moderate pace. Her 1 1/16th-mile time was almost a full second faster than the Grey Stakes for colts the next day. She was 23-1 in the Mazarine, and she might be 30-1 in here.  That's interesting to me.

   And Connie and Michael could win - or finish last.  She's going from a maiden debut victory to the Breeders' Cup in three weeks.  But her Keeneland score was not only fast, the pace was solid, as well, at least as it stacks up with other synthetic efforts: 81-87-92/91.  She can handle fake dirt, and could get a clear lead, especially since no one else will want it.  And here's another tidbit: Kent Desormeaux rode the other Kenny McPeek-trained Juvenile Fillies entrant, Beautician, to graded-stakes placings at Saratoga and to a troubled fifth in the Alcibiades.  He's riding Connie and Michael instead.

    

    

U.S. Won't See the Star

As Europeans once again shower a racehorse with superlatives, London's The Guardian had a fascinating article that dared to seek contrarian viewpoints about the legacy of Sea the Stars.

This quote from former champion jockey Joe Mercer: "I remember when Galileo won the King George (in 2001), they were raving about him being the best they'd ever seen.  You can't have a best horse you've ever seen every other year. Half the people who are saying he's the best they've ever seen aren't old enough to have seen the best horses."

    Geoff Greetham, publishing editor of England's esteemed Timeform publication, whose horse ratings are quoted worldwide, said Sea the Stars will not wind up rated as highly as legendary Euro greats Mill Reef and Brigadier Gerard.  "It is a shame he won't go to the Breeders' Cup," Greetham was quoted as saying. "I didn't subscribe to the view that he had nothing left to prove. I would like to have seen him in America."

British senior handicapper Phil Smith said he probably will rate Sea the Stars well behind some other English racing greats, but pointed out that although Sea the Stars has been running against "good horses but not great horses," he tended to win his races by short margins and thus "we may not be giving him the full credit he deserves."  Smith could raise his rating of Sea the Stars depending on the performance in the Breeders' Cup Classic of Rip Van Winkle, who Sea the Stars defeated three times.

    Finally, English Channel 4 analyst John McGrath, while praising the ability of Sea the Stars, was quoted as adding, "I couldn't put my hand on my heart and say he's better than Mill Reef and Brigadier Gerard. He's set a wonderful standard and he's a fantastic racehorse but I don't think he's done quite enough."

    On both sides of the pond, we've become inured to the sight of superstar racehorses - or potential superstars, at least - being retired prematurely due to the economic imbalance between racing purses and breeding riches. Even in breeding's current economic slump, Sea the Stars could easily stand for a $75,000 fee and be bred to 150 horses - possibly a conservative estimate - for a net of $11.25 million. Curlin made $10.5 million during his entire racing career.

How do we change that imbalance?  One way is to grow purses to stratospheric levels. In the present form of racing in this country, good luck with that.

    Following back-to-back-to-back early retirements of Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex and Bernardini, I wrote in 2006 about another way to keep our stars on the racetrack longer. It might be just as much of a longshot, with potential ramifications of its own, but here goes: 

Suppose Jockey Clubs in all major racing countries around the world rewrite their rules to require that in order for a thoroughbred to be registered to race, its sire and dam must have been at least 5 years of age at time of conception.  No exceptions would be made for injuries, regardless of severity. Clearly, the change would have to be worldwide, or top 4-year-old horses in the U.S., for example, could be sent to Ireland or France to stud for a year before returning to this country.

    Interesting food for thought, isn't it?

Back in the saddle again

    Opinions from an ESPN weekend of racing:

     Rachel Alexandra doesn’t yet have Horse of the Year wrapped up - not if Zenyatta wins the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  It will be a tall order for Zenyatta to defeat the Europeans - especially if Sea the Stars shows up - but she's ready for a new challenge.  She looks almost bored beating up on the same fillies and mares over and over again.
     What if Summer Bird wins the Classic?  It would seem almost criminal to deny Horse of the Year to a colt that wins the Belmont Stakes, Travers Stakes, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders’ Cup Classic.  But in that scenario, voters would probably focus on the result of the Haskell, in which Summer Bird was soundly defeated by Rachel Alexandra.
     The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf might actually be a premier race.  The best 2-year-olds I’ve seen thus far are Lookin at Lucky, the favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and Interactif, who looks to have the Juvenile Turf field at his mercy - at least among the American contenders.  Who knows what the Euros will come with?
      Don’t get stuck in a middle seat on a cross-country plane flight.
      I’d rather spend a Saturday afternoon at Keeneland than a Saturday afternoon at any other racetrack in America.  I’d rather handicap a Saturday card at Saratoga than any other racetrack card in America. I’d rather spend a dawn-to-dusk Saturday in Del Mar than at any other racetrack venue in America. Does this sound contradictory?
      Gitano Hernando, who couldn't win a Grade 3 stakes overseas, defeated our best synthetic handicap stars in the Goodwood. He’s hardly a bum, but you’ve got to be kidding me. 
      Cowboy Cal looked solid in the Oak Tree Mile.  Court Vision looked solid in the Shadwell Turf Mile.  Good luck to them against Goldikova in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. It’s apples and oranges.
      Give me a working-class budget and a yearling sale, and I’ll take Kenny McPeek. He’s proven it over and over.
      Speaking of McPeek, it was nice to hear a rival trainer handing out credit to Rick Dutrow for the form turnaround of Court Vision. Too many other horsemen would ignore Dutrow's accomplishment while privately insinuating it had more to do with illegal medication than horse sense. I heard many otherwise intelligent horseplayers and horse insiders predict Dutrow’s demise when NYRA went to the detention barn, and again when raceday steroid use was abolished. I’m not saying Dutrow is as pure as the driven snow, but his demise hasn’t happened yet, and there’s a reason for that.
      Does Kent Desormeaux stay awake nights thinking of new adjectives to toss out during interviews?  He doesn’t want his mount to be “vivacious” leaving the gate?  But I’d much rather hear what Desormeaux brings to the table than the tired old, “We’re taking it one race at a time” mantra.  Kent makes it interesting and entertaining at the same time, even if he occasionally takes liberties with the language.
      

FInding the right slot for slots

Dillweed writes, “The popularity of horse betting in the US would explode if we legalized betting exchanges. Unfortunately, Churchill Downs, the NTRA, and the central Kentucky power brokers are against it. They think slots, which don't add a cent to the betting pools nor help the popularity of horse racing, are the answer. Think this sport needs new leadership?”

Dilweed, permit me to take what might be a contrarian view to many: the marriage of slot machines and thoroughbred racing can indeed be the key to the sport’s future.

But that’s only if revenues are used for the long-term benefit of racing.

And unfortunately, most potential benefits have so far been squandered.

The present blueprint is usually as follows. Racing leaders plead to lawmakers that survival of their tracks depends on slots, as does survival of breeding farms valuable to agricultural economy. Once slots are obtained, small chunks of profits go to casino overhead, purses, minor upgrades to racing facilities, and state coffers. The rest goes into the pockets of track owners and investors savvy enough and well-connected enough to cut a sweetheart deal in the first place.

It’s too late to revise history in states already swimming in the deep end of the gaming pool. It isn’t too late to learn valuable lessons from what they’ve done.        

At present, Kentucky and Maryland seem to be clamoring loudest for slots-to-save-the-sport.

 Here’s the answer they should get:

You want slots to save horse racing? Put your quarters where your rhetoric is. that is, every quarter of net revenues should go back to the racing product and state.

Churchill Downs Inc., Magna Entertainment (or whoever is running Laurel and Pimlico ), and their shareholders should get nothing in slots dividends. Zilch. Of course, they can still make a lot of money from the slots. But to benefit from the largesse of a state that approves expanded gaming, they should be required to use slots revenues in hopes of generating more profits for the please-save-me business used to obtain the gaming machines in the first place: horse racing.

Think about some of the problems facing the sport. Unprecedented competition for the gambling dollar. Outdated facilities. The tedium of long meets, and the cannibalism they create among neighboring tracks.

Now think about what a slots windfall used properly could mean.

You can’t turn back the clock on lotteries or sports betting or Native American casinos, but guaranteed mega-profits mandated for racing would give tracks financial freedom to dramatically cut pari-mutuel takeout to be more competitive with casino games (it’s what they should be doing, anyway, of course).

Facilities could be rebuilt to better compete with publicly-funded sports palaces that are spoiling football and baseball fans.

Without feeling a need to grind out small profits over a long calendar of racing, tracks could slash dates to improve quality, shoot purses up to dramatic levels and create regional circuits with stakes and TV schedules that actually make sense.

Racing would have the funding to properly market and promote itself.

Yes, exchange betting could even be instituted to spice up wagering menus without the present fear tracks have of tipping delicate financial scales in the wrong direction.

And states also would get badly-needed money for education or infrastructure or charities. Sure, they’ll probably blow it, but that’s an entirely different can of worms.

Pie in the sky? Perhaps. Tracks could cut dates and work together right now, and it ain’t happening. But slot machines at racetracks is already a reality, and money like that used wisely can solve a lot of problems, add to betting pools and increase the popularity of the sport.

      Racing has an unprecedented window of opportunity, and it's a window that likely won’t stay open forever. 

To exchange or not?

Mike writes, "Here's something you maybe could sound off on. I'd love to hear your opinion on betting exchanges."

Rule No. 1 for any business: The customer is always right.
Rule No. 2: The customer is never wrong.
The rules most often violated by racetracks: see No. 1 and No. 2.
The simple fact is that horseplayers have spoken, and loudly. Betfair's record in the UK proves that betting exchanges are wildly popular, and the stagnant U.S. horse wagering menu is in dire need of something new, exciting and interesting.
Instead of focusing on the challenges our system would face in incorporatng betting exchanges, industry leaders need to have the foresight and proactivity to figure out a way to make it happen. Plainly stated, they need to listen to their customers.
Horse racing has lost an absurd percentage of gambling market share to casinos. Now exchange betting gives the sport a potential gift that could at least partially reverse that exodus.
Figure out a way to make it work for the long-term best interests of everyone involved. It isn't whether racing can afford to embrace the technology. They can't afford not to.